The biggest problem with only writing two of these per week is that every now and then something will happen, and it sparks a thought for me that I realize might be useful for y’all to read about. Then, somebody whose job is to write full time writes something pretty close to what I was planning to write before I can write it.
I wrote my Master's thesis on China-Taiwan relations and US trade with China was a big part of that, and you are right that a trade war would be no fun for the US, but devastating for China. The US would certainly "win", and one can make an argument that Washington should start hammering Beijing on trade; the whole reason China was able to skyrocket its economy beginning in the 80s is because Washington was so insistent that Beijing be allowed in the WTO, even if they didn't follow a bunch of the rules everyone else had to. Sure, that was mostly for self-interest on Washington's part, but also because the US wanted China to become a strong and stable international partner. That is not what has happened, and Chinese authorities have acted with bad faith at almost every step of the way. If China had the chance, in a heartbeat they would rewrite the post-war economic order that they used to develop so rapidly in the first place.
The problem, however, is that a weak and economically declining China is a dangerous China. The CCP derives every drop of their domestic legitimacy from its economy, and that is already wobbling. Should Xi be made to feel even more insecure, Beijing would increasingly lash out in the South China Sea, at its neighbors, China would almost certainly support Russia in Ukraine, and the PLA would likely try to take Taiwan in an attempt to hold on to that legitimacy. Obviously most people in DC know this, which is why the possibility of a trade war is something the Biden administration is fairly cautious about. They know diversification and ending reliance on China would be useful, both as a cudgel and as wise economic policy, but the consequences could get scary. Let's hope both DC and Beijing move slowly and carefully.
I wrote my Master's thesis on China-Taiwan relations and US trade with China was a big part of that, and you are right that a trade war would be no fun for the US, but devastating for China. The US would certainly "win", and one can make an argument that Washington should start hammering Beijing on trade; the whole reason China was able to skyrocket its economy beginning in the 80s is because Washington was so insistent that Beijing be allowed in the WTO, even if they didn't follow a bunch of the rules everyone else had to. Sure, that was mostly for self-interest on Washington's part, but also because the US wanted China to become a strong and stable international partner. That is not what has happened, and Chinese authorities have acted with bad faith at almost every step of the way. If China had the chance, in a heartbeat they would rewrite the post-war economic order that they used to develop so rapidly in the first place.
The problem, however, is that a weak and economically declining China is a dangerous China. The CCP derives every drop of their domestic legitimacy from its economy, and that is already wobbling. Should Xi be made to feel even more insecure, Beijing would increasingly lash out in the South China Sea, at its neighbors, China would almost certainly support Russia in Ukraine, and the PLA would likely try to take Taiwan in an attempt to hold on to that legitimacy. Obviously most people in DC know this, which is why the possibility of a trade war is something the Biden administration is fairly cautious about. They know diversification and ending reliance on China would be useful, both as a cudgel and as wise economic policy, but the consequences could get scary. Let's hope both DC and Beijing move slowly and carefully.